Coincidence, Signs and Confirmation Bias

Coincidence, Signs and Confirmation Bias moves The Witching Hour into intermediate practice. Morgana makes the constructive case, Adrian tests the weak points, and Dr Ellis separates historical context from modern recommendation.

A mature witchcraft can value meaningful coincidence while actively guarding against the human tendency to notice hits, forget misses and search harder after a desired answer.

In this episode

• Define a sign before looking for it when possible.
• Count misses as well as hits.
• Consider base rates.
• Avoid moving the goalposts after nothing happens.
• Notice algorithmic reinforcement online.

Try one practical exercise from the discussion and record what you did, what you observed, and what remains uncertain. The aim is a more skillful practice, not certainty on demand.